@Article{BakerGBSMKGCS:2021:RoAmPr,
               author = "Baker, J. C. A. and Garcia Carreras, J. and Buermann, W. and 
                         Souza, Dayana Castilho de and Marsham, J. H. and Kubota, Paulo 
                         Yoshio and Gloor, M. and Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos and 
                         Spracklen, D. V.",
          affiliation = "{University of Leeds} and {University of Manchester} and 
                         {Universitaet Augsburg} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {University of Leeds} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {University of Leeds} 
                         and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and 
                         {University of Leeds}",
                title = "Robust Amazon precipitation projections in climate models that 
                         capture realistic land-atmosphere interactions",
              journal = "Environmental Research Letters",
                 year = "2021",
               volume = "16",
               number = "7",
                pages = "e074002",
                month = "July",
             keywords = "CMIP5, evapotranspiration, land-atmosphere coupling, hydrological 
                         feedbacks, process-based evaluation.",
             abstract = "Land-atmosphere interactions have an important influence on Amazon 
                         precipitation (P), but evaluation of these processes in climate 
                         models has so far been limited. We analysed relationships between 
                         Amazon P and evapotranspiration (ET) in the 5th Coupled Model 
                         Intercomparison Project models to evaluate controls on surface 
                         moisture fluxes and assess the credibility of regional P 
                         projections. We found that only 13 out of 38 models captured an 
                         energy limitation on Amazon ET, in agreement with observations, 
                         while 20 models instead showed Amazon ET is limited by water 
                         availability. Models that misrepresented controls on ET over the 
                         historical period projected both large increases and decreases in 
                         Amazon P by 2100, likely amplified by unrealistic land-atmosphere 
                         interactions. In contrast, large future changes in annual and 
                         seasonal-scale Amazon P were suppressed in models that simulated 
                         realistic controls on ET, due to modulating land-atmosphere 
                         interactions. By discounting projections from models that 
                         simulated unrealistic ET controls, our analysis halved uncertainty 
                         in basin-wide future P change. The ensemble mean of plausible 
                         models showed a robust drying signal over the eastern Amazon and 
                         in the dry season, and P increases in the west. Finally, we showed 
                         that factors controlling Amazon ET evolve over time in realistic 
                         models, reducing climate stability and leaving the region 
                         vulnerable to further change.",
                  doi = "10.1088/1748-9326/abfb2e",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abfb2e",
                 issn = "1748-9326",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "baker_robust.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "09 maio 2024"
}